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Inflation clouds ‘Black Friday’ kickoff of US holiday shopping season

| PAr AFP | John Biers |

US retailers unveiled a trove of fresh promotions Friday, as they try to coax sales from reticent shoppers whose holiday cheer has been tempered by inflation and worries over a softening economy.

“Black Friday,” the unofficial start of the US holiday shopping season, announced itself with the annual day-after-Thanksgiving deluge of online deals and early store openings.

Traffic was steady at Macy’s flagship store in midtown Manhattan, where crowds braved drizzly, chilly weather to survey the mammoth department store and take in holiday windows that feature a Santa surrounded by disco balls and fox family of stuffed animals clad in plaid.

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But industry experts have been cautious about this year’s prospects, in light of price pressures that have exacerbated concerns about an oversupply of goods.  

A year ago, retailers faced product shortfalls in the wake of shipping backlogs and factory closures related to Covid-19. To avert a repeat, the industry front-loaded holiday imports this year, leaving it vulnerable to oversupply at a time when consumers are cutting back.

“Today’s problem is having too much stuff,” said Neil Saunders, managing director for consultancy GlobalData Retail.

Saunders said retailers have made progress in reducing excess inventories, but oversupply will mean deep discounts in many categories, including electronics and apparel.

“This is a holiday season where retailers are going to have to work very hard for very small gains,” he said.

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The dynamic has created opportunities for savvy shoppers like Carla Forbes, who began scouring for holiday discounts weeks ago. She nabbed a jacket Friday at Macy’s for $79, down from an original price of $225.

While promotions on watches and jewelry have got “better,” she noted that such deals are not available for staples like food, for which prices have soared.

“You just have to buy it if you want (it),” Forbes said.

Diminishing savings

Leading forecasts from Deloitte and the National Retail Federation project a single-digit percentage rise in sales, but this is unlikely to exceed the inflation rate.

Adobe expects an overall holiday sales increase of 2.5 percent, less than a third of last year’s level. Besides inflation, Adobe cited higher Federal Reserve interest rates and an uptick in brick-and-mortar shopping as factors.

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Consumers spent  $7.28 billion up through 6:00 pm Eastern time (2300 GMT) for Black Friday, according to Adobe. The company anticipates that when the final tally is in, consumers will spend between $9 billion and $9.2 billion for the day, setting a new record for online sales on Black Friday.

Countries like Britain and France have been marking Black Friday too, but with soaring inflation, merchants there face a similar dilemma.

“The worry is that it could turn out to be more of a Bleak Friday,” said Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Susannah Streeter.

Anne Campbell, who was visiting New York from Scotland, said the mood felt very different from home, where worries about energy security and a weakening economy dominated.

“Things are very tight in the UK for a lot of people,” she said, contrasting this with spending in the US.

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US shoppers have remained resilient throughout the pandemic, often spending more than expected even when consumer sentiment surveys suggested gloominess.

Part of the reason has been the unusually robust state of savings, with many households banking government pandemic aid payments at a time of reduced consumption due to virus restrictions.

But that cushion is starting to whittle away. After hitting $2.5 trillion in excess savings in mid-2021, the benchmark fell to $1.7 trillion in the second quarter, according to Moody’s.

Accompanying this drop has been a rise in credit card debt visible in Fed data and anecdotally described by chains that report more purchases made with food stamps.

Mixed picture

Recent earnings reports from retailers paint a mixed picture on consumer health.

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Target stood on the downcast side, pointing to a sharp decline in shopping activity in late October, potentially portending a weak holiday season.

“We’ve had a consumer who has been dealing with very stubborn inflation for quarter after quarter now,” Chief Executive Brian Cornell told a conference call with analysts.

He added that customers are “shopping very carefully on a budget.”

But Lowe’s, another US chain specializing in home-improvement, described the same late-October period as “strong.”

Friday’s crowds in New York were more robust compared with a year ago, said shopper Marvin Thomas, who also ventured out for Black Friday in 2021.

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Inflation is a “big problem,” he told AFP, catching his breath outdoors after finding a deal on a hat at Foot Locker.

“I’m not going to deny that it has affected me, but you gotta do what you gotta do.”

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International

The United States accuses Russia of using chemical weapons against Ukraine

The U.S. State Department determined that Russia has used chemical weapons against Ukraine with agents that constitute a violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CAQ) and will impose sanctions on those responsible.

The United States determined that Russia has used chloropicrin, a pesticide used as a suffocating gas in World War I and banned internationally. He has used it in Ukraine to force the departure of troops from fortified positions.

For this reason, the United States has imposed new sanctions on individuals and organizations related to this use of chemical weapons.

“We make this determination, in addition to our conclusion that Russia has used riot control agents as a method of war in Ukraine, also a violation of the CAQ,” the State Department said.

The United States considers that the use of this chemical armament is not isolated and “is probably driven by the desire of the Russian forces to expel Ukrainian forces from fortified positions and achieve tactical advances on the battlefield.”

The Treasury and State Departments sanctioned two people, six Russian entities and four companies. All associated with Russia’s chemical and biological weapons programs.

Chloropicrin is used as a tear agent, but it is prohibited in armed conflicts. In a trench war you can’t escape its effects and you can suffocate.

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International

Trump promises the largest deportation of migrants in history, “they are going to destroy the country”

The former president of the United States and Republican pre-candidate Donald Trump promised to carry out the “highest deportation” of migrants in the country’s history if he returns to the White House after the elections on November 5, because “they are going to destroy the country.”

“Allowing the entry through the southern border of millions and millions of people, many of them very bad, is not sustainable. They are going to destroy the country. We are going to do the biggest deportation in history. We have no other choice,” he said at a campaign rally in Waukesha, in the key state of Wisconsin.

The former president once again accused his rival, Democratic President Joe Biden, of having applied an open border policy during the last four years that has resulted in an “invasion” of migrants.

Trump made these statements a day after an interview with Time magazine was published in which he detailed that he plans to deploy the Army to persecute and detain undocumented migrants if he wins the elections.

In the same interview, he did not rule out the possibility of building new migrant detention camps. Although he did not point it out as a priority since his plan is to deport them quickly.

Trump, who won the elections in 2016 after promising to build a wall on the border with Mexico, has put migration back at the center of his campaign, which has become one of the issues of greatest concern for voters.

The Republican took advantage of a pause in the open criminal trial he has in New York to campaign in Wisconsin and Michigan. Places where he is practically tied with Biden in the polls.

The New York tycoon already visited these two states in the midwest of the country in April and then also insisted on the issue of migration, since he accused the current president of having caused a “bloodbath at the border.”

The Biden Administration annulled Trump’s policy that facilitated the return of hot migrants. It launched humanitarian permit programs for people from several countries, while restricting asylum applications at the border.

More than two million people were arrested last year when crossing the southern border of the United States irregularly.

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International

‘Gaby’ Carrizo, the unpopular ruling presidential candidate for the Presidency of Panama

José Gabriel Carrizo, the current Panamanian vice president, better known as ‘Gaby’, aspires to the historic Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) to lead Panama again for another five years after next Sunday’s elections, in which he participates with low popularity rates.

Carrizo, the ruling party’s candidate for the Presidency in conjunction with the Molinera party, and who this Wednesday closes his campaign in Panama City, is at the queue of the polls among the five candidates with options, although the strong base of the PRD in the country, the party of the iconic general Omar Torrijos, cannot be underestimated.

The polls that ‘Gaby’ does lead are those of rejection, with between 50% and 60% of the participants in some surveys who assured that they would “never” vote for him.

“Don’t eat a story (…) we are going to win the elections in a forceful way,” Carrizo said on Wednesday at the closing ceremony of the campaign before a mass of members of the PRD, and assured that the polls “really that they do not want to publish” predict that triumph.

A lawyer by profession, he has been a member of the majority party of Panama since 2007 and in 2019 he became the youngest vice president in Panamanian history at just 36 years old, after Laurentino Cortizo won that year’s elections.

‘Gaby’, 40, has had a lot of visibility within the Executive, which has led to it being popularly pointed out as one of the main faces behind the different scandals that have enveloped the current Government since its inception and that increased with the COVID-19 pandemic.

That year, Carrizo defended the transparent management of the $1,457 million approved during 2020 to combat the pandemic in Panama.

Carrizo has also had a step run over by the presidential debates or during interviews with some media, when making mistakes when explaining his proposals, defending for example that “Panama is safer than France” or that they want to “pass Panama from the first world to the third world.”

This triggered a wave of jokes on social networks that the same candidate used in his favor to campaign with humor, a tone of his political strategy.

In the third and final debate he made the decision not to participate, arguing that José Raúl Mulino, candidate who leads the polls for the Realizing Goals party and substitute for the disabled former President Ricardo Martinelli (2009 – 2014), did not join the debate, as he had not done in the previous ones.

“In the case of the vice president candidate, I think he was looking for an excuse not to come because the last interventions have really been disastrous for him,” José Blandón, the running mate for vice president of Rómulo Roux of Democratic Change, told EFE after the debate.

The youngest of the eight candidates for the Presidency, starts with his main proposal to reduce the working week by maintaining 40 hours in fewer days, a system similar to the one already implemented in some European countries: “Work four days, pound three,” he says on his advertising posters and social networks.

Carrizo has given continuous mass baths in the provinces of Panama during his campaign explaining his electoral promises, which include that cut in working days, salary increases – including for security groups -, free medicines and promotion of tourism, among others.

“When you ask how much 4×8 is (referring to the ruling you had in one of the debates by saying 40 and not 32) answer that there are a thousand sticks (tickets) for your pocket,” the candidate shouts eagerly in one of his videos.

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