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Lula’s lead holds steady ahead of Brazil vote: poll

Photo: Maira Erlich / AFP

AFP

Leftist front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s lead over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro remains steady at six percentage points ahead of Brazil’s October 30 presidential runoff election, according to a poll released Friday.

Lula has 53 percent of the vote to 47 percent for Bolsonaro, the Datafolha institute found, the same numbers as its last poll on October 7.

The figures exclude voters who plan to cast blank or spoiled ballots — five percent of respondents, Datafolha found.

The margin of error for the poll, which was based on interviews with 2,898 people Thursday and Friday, was plus or minus two percentage points.

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The latest numbers came as a battle brewed in Brazil over pollsters, which largely underestimated Bolsonaro’s support in the first-round election on October 2.

Datafolha, for instance, had found Bolsonaro trailing Lula by 14 percentage points on the eve of the first round.

In the event, the incumbent finished just five points shy: 48 percent to 43 percent.

Bolsonaro cried foul after the election, accusing polling firms of trying to muzzle his popularity.

“We beat the lie,” he said.

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Federal police reportedly opened an investigation into polling firms Thursday at the request of Bolsonaro’s justice ministry over alleged “criminal practices.”

Competition regulators, meanwhile, opened a separate investigation into whether the firms had carried out an “orchestrated action” to “manipulate” the elections.

However, the head of the Superior Electoral Tribunal, Judge Alexandre de Moraes, ordered the investigations halted late Thursday, saying they were “usurping” electoral officials’ authority.

The probes “appear to show an intent to satisfy (Bolsonaro’s) will,” wrote Moraes, instructing electoral officials to open an investigation of their own into a possible “abuse of power.”

Bolsonaro hit back at Moraes, who doubles as a Supreme Court justice and is a frequent target of attacks from the president.

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“The polling firms are going to keep lying. How many votes are they dragging to the other side? People generally vote for whomever’s in the lead,” Bolsonaro said.

  • Supporters of Brazil's former President (2003-2010) and presidential candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT), Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, take pictures during a rally of the candidate in Recife, Pernambuco state, Brazil, on Friday, October 14, 2022. - President Jair Bolsonaro, 67, exceeded polling predictions by coming a closer-than-expected second to ex-president Lula da Silva, 76, in a first election round on October 2. The two men will face off in a deeply polarized second round on October 30. (Photo by Maira Erlich / AFP)

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International

Climate-driven rains trigger one of Indonesia’s deadliest flood emergencies in years

A torrential monsoon season, compounded by two unusual tropical cyclones, has triggered intense rainfall in several regions since last week, including southern Thailand, northern Malaysia, and large parts of Indonesia.

Climate change has recently intensified rainfall patterns, as a warmer atmosphere is able to hold more moisture. In Indonesia, desperation is growing among those affected by the disaster due to the slow pace of rescue operations and the distribution of humanitarian aid.

Relief agencies warned that the scale of the emergency is nearly unprecedented, even for a country accustomed to frequent natural disasters.

Across the island of Sumatra, the death toll was revised downward to 770 fatalities and at least 463 people still missing as of Wednesday night. Earlier, the national disaster management agency had reported 804 deaths.

Gathering accurate information on the ground remains difficult, as many regions are still cut off due to flood damage, widespread power outages, communication failures, or a combination of all three.

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International

Russian authorities ban Roblox citing child safety and moral concerns

Russia has blocked access to the U.S.-owned game creation platform Roblox, accusing it of distributing extremist materials and what authorities described as “LGBT propaganda,” state media reported on Wednesday.

The country has repeatedly threatened to ban certain foreign digital platforms, a move that human rights organizations view as part of broader efforts by authorities to tighten control over internet use.

In a statement released through Russian news agencies, the federal communications watchdog Roskomnadzor accused Roblox of hosting “inappropriate content that can negatively affect the spiritual and moral development of children.”

“The game exposes minors to sexual harassment, tricks them into sharing intimate photos, and encourages them to commit acts of depravity and violence,” the regulator claimed.

Last week, the same agency also threatened to ban WhatsApp, the country’s second most widely used messaging app, accusing it of failing to prevent criminal activity.

Roblox, which is owned by the U.S.-based Roblox Corporation, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

According to company data for 2024, the platform has around 100 million daily users worldwide, nearly 40% of whom are under the age of 13.

Other countries, including Qatar, Iraq and Turkey, have also restricted or banned Roblox, mainly over concerns about the safety of underage users. In the United States, the states of Texas and Louisiana have filed lawsuits against the platform on similar grounds.

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International

El Chapo’s son Joaquín Guzmán López pleads guilty to U.S. drug trafficking charges

Joaquín Guzmán López, one of the sons of notorious Mexican drug lord Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, pleaded guilty on Monday to drug trafficking charges in a U.S. court, months after his brother Ovidio reached a similar plea agreement, according to local media reports.

The defendant appeared before a federal court in Chicago early Monday afternoon and changed his previous plea in the case, the Chicago Tribune reported. U.S. authorities accuse him of forming, together with his three brothers, the cartel faction known as “Los Chapitos.”

The group is believed to have continued the operations of El Chapo, who has been serving a life sentence in the United States since 2019.

Guzmán López, 39, was arrested after landing in Texas in a small aircraft alongside cartel co-founder Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada.

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