International
Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts
AFP | Javier Tovar
To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.
The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.
If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.
The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.
“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.
“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”
Deal-making time
Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.
“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.
Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.
Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).
Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.
Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”
Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.
She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.
“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.
Big spending shelved
Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.
He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.
But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.
Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.
The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.
“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”
Back to the future?
Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.
“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.
“He needs to present plans for the future.”
If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.
“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.
“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”
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Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)
International
Trump to decide soon on deportation exemptions for construction and farm workers
U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday in Florida that he will make a decision in the coming weeks regarding exemptions from deportations for workers in the construction and agriculture sectors.
Trump made these remarks to the media during a visit to the new migrant detention center, ‘Alligator Alcatraz,’ located in the middle of a wetland in Florida, the White House reported.
ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) raids have targeted many of these workers, sparking fear among them and threatening to slow down two sectors that are vital to the U.S. economy.
In construction, 25.7% of workers are immigrants, and 14.1% of the total workforce nationwide is undocumented, according to the American Immigration Council.
In agriculture, the percentage of undocumented employees rises to 42%, according to data from the Department of Agriculture cited by the New York Times.
International
IDB plans $11 billion in sustainable financing to support countries facing currency risks
The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) aims to unlock at least $11 billion in sustainable financing to help countries address challenges including natural disasters that strain their currencies and hinder private sector investment.
As the United States and other wealthier countries reduce official development assistance, multilateral lenders face pressure to find new ways to tackle issues such as climate change and biodiversity loss. During the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development, IDB President Ilan Goldfajn stated that the measures adopted by the IDB are expected to inspire more private sector contributions, which is a key priority of the conference.
“We are not just announcing ideas; we are launching what the private sector is asking for: credible tools, scalable platforms, and real opportunities to invest with impact and confidence,” he added.
Support will include a new platform designed to help countries manage the risk of large swings in their national currencies that can deter international investors by making returns harder to predict. Based on a program in Brazil that has already attracted $8 billion from the private sector since its launch last year, the plan is to expand the concept to other regional economies over the next three years and at least double the amount mobilized.
Called FX EDGE, the platform will offer a credit line that activates if a currency drops sharply—a common problem during political or debt crises or after natural disasters—ensuring debtors can continue to service their loans in dollars or other foreign currencies.
The platform also aims to enable greater use of long-term currency hedging instruments, such as derivatives, through local banks and financial institutions, backed by the IDB’s credit rating.
International
Maduro’s government appeals to Vatican for help rescuing migrant children
Este lunes, durante su programa semanal ‘Con Maduro +’, el mandatario venezolano anunció que pediría al sumo pontífice su ayuda para rescatar a 18 niños migrantes.
“Yo sé que el papa es un hombre que comprende estos temas. Le pido ayuda a la Iglesia católica, apostólica y romana, al papa León, para que la Iglesia católica de Estados Unidos y la Iglesia católica de El Salvador proteja a los migrantes y nos ayude con sus gestiones para rescatar a estos niños y a estas niñas”, indicó Maduro en el espacio transmitido por VTV.
Más temprano, Rodríguez había pedido al alto comisionado de la ONU para los Derechos Humanos, Volker Türk, y al coordinador residente de la ONU en Venezuela, Gianluca Rampolla, pronunciarse sobre este hecho y exigió a Washington devolver a los pequeños.
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