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Brazil presidential battle enters home stretch with Lula in the lead

Photo: A News

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

Brazil’s deeply polarized election campaign entered the home stretch Thursday with incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva  preparing to square off in what could be a bellicose final debate.

The confrontation will happen in a late-night, live broadcast on TV Globo just hours after a fresh opinion poll signaled a persistent strong lead for Lula ahead of Sunday’s first election round.

Far-right Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking reelection after a controversial first term, but lags behind ex-president Lula, 76, who left office in 2010 with an unprecedented 87-percent approval rating.

On Thursday, a poll by Datafolha showed Lula maintaining a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro with the stated support of 50 percent of respondents who said they intended to cast a valid ballot and not a blank or spoiled one.

To avoid a runoff round on October 30 and win outright on Sunday, a candidate must garner 50 percent of valid votes, plus one.

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Bolsonaro’s stated support remained in a distant second place with 36 percent, Datafolha found.

The incumbent is counting on his evangelical and business-centric support base, while Lula — who served two consecutive terms from 2003 — is appealing to poor, minority and anti-Bolsonaro voters.

Thursday’s TV Globo debate, traditionally the most-watched pre-electoral program in Brazil, will be the last chance for candidates to sway undecided voters, who, polls suggest, number just 13 percent of the electorate.

‘Can change the picture’

Bolsonaro’s camp expect him to adopt an aggressive stance towards Lula in Thursday’s final debate, focusing on the corruption scandals that have damaged the leftist Worker’s Party, and pressing home his conservative values on issues of religion and abortion.

The pair will be joined on stage by five other candidates with no statistical shot at making it to the final two.

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“This is the debate that can change the picture,” a Bolsonaro campaign member told AFP on condition of anonymity.

After the first debate, a month ago, Lula was criticized for seemingly evading the corruption question. His campaign was further harmed by not taking part in another debate, last Saturday, between Bolsonaro and other candidates.

Lula has urged Brazilians loyal to any of the minority candidates — all with less than 10 percent of voter intention — to rather cast a “useful” vote for him, and against Bolsonaro.

The president got a celebrity boost Thursday for his re-election bid from football superstar Neymar, who posted a video on TikTok of himself dancing to a pro-Bolsonaro campaign song.

Grinning, the Paris Saint-Germain and Brazil striker, arguably Brazil’s most famous celebrity, flashed the number 22 — Bolsonaro’s candidate number —  with his fingers as he rocked out to the electronic dance jingle.

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The broadcast election campaign in Brazil ends at midnight on Thursday, although in-person events and distribution of election material will be allowed until Saturday night.

Datafolha will bring out another, final poll on Saturday, the eve of the first round, that could indicate whether Thursday’s debate has swayed any voters. 

Bolsonaro has repeatedly rejected the accuracy of polls and hinted he would challenge any result in which Lula is the winner, saying last weekend: “We are the majority. We will win in the first round.”

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International

Colombian president Gustavo Petro warns against U.S. military intervention in Venezuela

Colombian President Gustavo Petro defended his Venezuelan counterpart Nicolás Maduro after the U.S. administration labeled him as the leader of the “Cartel of the Suns” and authorized the Pentagon to use military force against drug cartels, which could lead to an intervention on Venezuelan soil to combat these criminal groups. Petro stated that any military operation without the approval of Colombia or Venezuela would represent an “aggression.”

Petro responded over the weekend following reports on Friday from U.S. media about President Donald Trump’s order to confront designated global terrorist organizations such as the Cartel of the Suns, the Sinaloa Cartel, and the Tren de Aragua, including operations on foreign soil. Furthermore, the U.S. State Department increased the reward for information leading to Maduro’s capture from $25 million to $50 million.

“I publicly convey my order given as commander of the Colombian armed forces. Colombia and Venezuela are one people, one flag, one history. Any military operation without the approval of the brother countries is an aggression against Latin America and the Caribbean. It is fundamentally contradictory to our principle of freedom. ‘Freedom or death,’ Bolívar shouted, and the people revolted,” Petro posted on his social media, clearly expressing his disagreement with potential U.S. military intervention in Venezuela.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in an interview on The World Over program on Friday that controlling these terrorist groups is decisive. He added that, for the U.S., these gangs are no longer just local street gangs but well-organized criminal enterprises spreading from Mexico, Guatemala, and Ecuador.

“We cannot continue treating these guys as local street gangs. They have weapons like terrorists, in some cases they have armies. They control territories in many cases. These cartels extend from Maduro’s regime in Venezuela, which is not a legitimate government,” Rubio told the audience.

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U.S. offers $5 million reward for arrest of haitian gang leader Jimmy “Barbeque” Cherizier

The United States announced on Tuesday a $5 million reward for the arrest of Haitian gang leader Jimmy “Barbeque” Cherizier, accused of violating U.S. sanctions. Haiti, the poorest country in Latin America and the Caribbean, is engulfed in a political crisis and a wave of armed gang violence, which an international security mission led by Kenya is trying to end.

Cherizier, 48, and Bazile Richardson have been formally charged with attempting to transfer funds from the United States to Haiti to finance gang activities, the Department of Justice reported.

“There is a good reason to offer a $5 million reward for information leading to Cherizier’s arrest,” said federal prosecutor Jeanine Pirro at a press conference.

“He is a gang leader responsible for atrocious human rights violations, including violence against U.S. citizens in Haiti,” she added.

Cherizier has been subject to U.S. Treasury sanctions since 2020 and UN sanctions since 2022.

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Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to meet Guatemalan leader Bernardo Arévalo next friday

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed on Monday that she will hold her first bilateral meeting with her Guatemalan counterpart, Bernardo Arévalo, next Friday.

During her press conference at the National Palace, Sheinbaum detailed that the August 15 meeting will include a brief visit to Guatemala, followed by a trilateral meeting with Belize’s Prime Minister, Juan Antonio Briceño, in Calakmul, Campeche, in southeastern Mexico.

Sheinbaum explained that the meeting was proposed by Arévalo during a phone call last Friday, in which the Guatemalan president invited her to visit Guatemala.

The agenda will begin on Thursday night when Sheinbaum travels to Chetumal to lead her morning press conference on Friday.

Afterwards, she will travel to Guatemala for the bilateral meeting with Arévalo, then return to Calakmul to meet Belize’s Prime Minister Briceño for a trilateral meeting with Arévalo.

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Later, Sheinbaum will hold a bilateral meeting with the Belizean leader.

The president announced that many agreements will be announced during the meetings with the southern border countries but avoided providing details to keep them as a surprise for that day.

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