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Brazil presidential battle enters home stretch with Lula in the lead

Photo: A News

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

Brazil’s deeply polarized election campaign entered the home stretch Thursday with incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva  preparing to square off in what could be a bellicose final debate.

The confrontation will happen in a late-night, live broadcast on TV Globo just hours after a fresh opinion poll signaled a persistent strong lead for Lula ahead of Sunday’s first election round.

Far-right Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking reelection after a controversial first term, but lags behind ex-president Lula, 76, who left office in 2010 with an unprecedented 87-percent approval rating.

On Thursday, a poll by Datafolha showed Lula maintaining a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro with the stated support of 50 percent of respondents who said they intended to cast a valid ballot and not a blank or spoiled one.

To avoid a runoff round on October 30 and win outright on Sunday, a candidate must garner 50 percent of valid votes, plus one.

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Bolsonaro’s stated support remained in a distant second place with 36 percent, Datafolha found.

The incumbent is counting on his evangelical and business-centric support base, while Lula — who served two consecutive terms from 2003 — is appealing to poor, minority and anti-Bolsonaro voters.

Thursday’s TV Globo debate, traditionally the most-watched pre-electoral program in Brazil, will be the last chance for candidates to sway undecided voters, who, polls suggest, number just 13 percent of the electorate.

‘Can change the picture’

Bolsonaro’s camp expect him to adopt an aggressive stance towards Lula in Thursday’s final debate, focusing on the corruption scandals that have damaged the leftist Worker’s Party, and pressing home his conservative values on issues of religion and abortion.

The pair will be joined on stage by five other candidates with no statistical shot at making it to the final two.

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“This is the debate that can change the picture,” a Bolsonaro campaign member told AFP on condition of anonymity.

After the first debate, a month ago, Lula was criticized for seemingly evading the corruption question. His campaign was further harmed by not taking part in another debate, last Saturday, between Bolsonaro and other candidates.

Lula has urged Brazilians loyal to any of the minority candidates — all with less than 10 percent of voter intention — to rather cast a “useful” vote for him, and against Bolsonaro.

The president got a celebrity boost Thursday for his re-election bid from football superstar Neymar, who posted a video on TikTok of himself dancing to a pro-Bolsonaro campaign song.

Grinning, the Paris Saint-Germain and Brazil striker, arguably Brazil’s most famous celebrity, flashed the number 22 — Bolsonaro’s candidate number —  with his fingers as he rocked out to the electronic dance jingle.

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The broadcast election campaign in Brazil ends at midnight on Thursday, although in-person events and distribution of election material will be allowed until Saturday night.

Datafolha will bring out another, final poll on Saturday, the eve of the first round, that could indicate whether Thursday’s debate has swayed any voters. 

Bolsonaro has repeatedly rejected the accuracy of polls and hinted he would challenge any result in which Lula is the winner, saying last weekend: “We are the majority. We will win in the first round.”

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International

Petro expresses concern over fatal shooting during mass protests in Lima

Colombian President Gustavo Petro voiced his “concern” on Thursday over recent events in Peru, following the death of a protester reportedly shot during a massive demonstration in Lima against the government and Congress.

“I must express my concern over the events in Peru. A young artist has been killed in citizens’ protests,” Petro wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

The Colombian leader also noted that in Peru, “a popularly elected president remains imprisoned without conviction,” referring to Pedro Castillo, who led the country from July 2021 to December 2022 until he was removed by Congress following a failed attempted coup.

“This is a blatant violation of the American Convention on Human Rights,” Petro stated, adding, “I hope Peru seeks social and political dialogue to legitimize its public institutions.”

On Wednesday, Peru experienced widespread protests in several cities, with the largest demonstration in Lima in recent years, driven by citizens’ concerns over corruption and public insecurity.

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During the capital’s mobilization, the Ombudsman’s Office confirmed the death of Eduardo Ruiz, 32, and reported clashes that left over 100 injured, including 78 police officers and 24 protesters, as well as ten arrests.

The Attorney General’s Office, investigating Ruiz’s death “in the context of serious human rights violations,” confirmed that the protester was shot.

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International

Peru’s interim president José Jerí refuses to resign after protester’s death in Lima

Peru’s interim president, José Jerí, stated Thursday that he has no intention of resigning from the post he assumed last Friday, following the removal of former president Dina Boluarte, despite growing unrest over the death of a protester during massive demonstrations in Lima on Wednesday.

“I will not resign,” Jerí declared outside the Government Palace in Lima, where he returned on foot after making a surprise visit to Congress headquarters alongside Prime Minister Ernesto Álvarez.

Earlier, after leaving the Legislative Palace, the president acknowledged that the country is going through “difficult times” and condemned what he described as “a small group attempting to impose an agenda different from the citizens’ expression of discontent.”

Jerí expressed condolences for the death of Eduardo Ruiz, a 32-year-old man who died during Wednesday’s protest against the government and Congress, amid growing anger over corruption and insecurity.

“We stand in solidarity with his family,” he said, without offering further details about the incident, which has sparked outrage among Peruvians.

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The president also described the demonstrations as “a legitimate civic expression” that later turned violent due to “certain groups seeking to provoke chaos by exploiting a peaceful citizen movement.”

“In a state governed by the rule of law, the rights of both demonstrators and security forces must be protected,” Jerí emphasized, adding that “as a result of that situation, this unfortunate death occurred outside the main area where the protest was taking place.”

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International

Mexican government prioritizes 191 communities after deadly floods

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed on Wednesday that the death toll from recent rains and floods across several central states has risen to 66, while the federal government has activated air bridges and prioritized assistance in 191 isolated communities.

“Unfortunately, 66 people have died, and 75 remain missing,” the president said during her morning press conference. She added that the official death toll will be updated later in a new report.

As of Tuesday, authorities had reported 64 fatalities. Sheinbaum also announced the creation of a public information center to centralize official data on the deceased, missing persons, damaged homes, and cut-off communities.

According to the president, the number of missing persons has decreased thanks to coordination with state authorities.

“Through calls to phone line 079, 103 people who had been reported missing have now been located,” she explained.

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Priority Municipalities

The president noted that the federal government has classified 191 communities as ‘priority’, a designation based mainly on the percentage of homes affected.

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