International

Ethiopia’s return to conflict: what we know

AFP

Fresh fighting between Ethiopian forces and Tigrayan rebels has broken a five-month truce that had paved the way for the resumption of humanitarian aid and tentative peace efforts.

The facts behind the sudden return to conflict in northern Ethiopia remain sparse. Here’s what we know so far and the questions that still linger:

– How did it happen? –

As has been the case throughout the 21-month conflict, both sides have accused each other of starting the fight and violating the truce that had been in place since late March.

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) said government forces and their allies launched a “large-scale” offensive towards southern Tigray at 5 am (0200 GMT) on Wednesday.

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But Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government said it was the rebels who struck first.

The tit-for-tat claims could not be independently verified as access to northern Ethiopia is severely restricted.

Later in the day, Ethiopia’s air force announced it had downed a plane carrying weapons for the TPLF that had entered its airspace via Sudan, a claim the rebels dismissed as a “blatant lie”.

– What does this mean for peace efforts? –

Regardless of who initiated Wednesday’s clashes, the prospects for peace in Africa’s second most populous nation appear grim, analysts say.

Even before the latest eruption of violence, the two sides were already at odds over the question of who should mediate potential negotiations.

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The Abiy government wants the African Union’s Horn of Africa envoy Olusegun Obasanjo to lead peace talks while the TPLF has been pushing for Kenya’s outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta to broker dialogue.

They have also sparred over the restoration of basic services such as electricity, communications and banking to Tigray — a key precondition for dialogue according to the TPLF.

The government on the other hand says federal service providers cannot work inside Tigray without a “secure environment”.

The Eurasia Group political risk consultancy flagged “the pre-emptive recruitment and training of troops by both camps” — an indication that neither side had put much stock in peace negotiations.

“Amid a resurgence in fighting, neither party will be willing to reduce their leverage for future talks by compromising on key issues,” said Eurasia’s Africa analyst Connor Vasey.

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“Rather, they will likely aim to use the next phase of fighting to bolster their negotiating positions,” he said, setting the stage for an escalation in violence.

– How will humanitarian aid be affected? –

Prior to the truce, no aid had reached Tigray by road for three months, leaving the region of six million in desperate need of food.

Even after convoys resumed, fuel shortages have made it difficult for aid workers to distribute supplies.

Last week, the UN’s World Food Programme warned that nearly half the population in Tigray was suffering from a severe lack of food and rates of malnutrition had “skyrocketed”.

The return to conflict will worsen an already dire situation.

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On Wednesday, the UN said the rebels had “forcibly entered” a WFP warehouse in Tigray’s capital Mekele that morning and taken a dozen tankers carrying 570,000 litres of fuel intended for emergency relief operations.

“Millions will starve if we do not have fuel to deliver food. This is OUTRAGEOUS and DISGRACEFUL,” WFP chief David Beasley said on Twitter.

– Is this a full-blown return to war? –

In recent weeks, both warring parties appear to have simultaneously broached the possibility of peace while also making preparations for a potential return to conflict.

Whether the latest conflagration leads to all-out war will depend on which view prevails, with analysts urging the international community to play a more active role in bringing both players to the negotiating table.

In a statement dated August 23, TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael said the rebels had participated in “two rounds of confidential face-to-face” meetings with top Ethiopian officials, the first acknowledgement by either side of direct talks.

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The government has not confirmed the existence of such talks, but last week an official committee tasked with looking into negotiations called for a formal ceasefire in a proposal it planned to submit to the AU.

The eruption of hostilities is “a deafening warning to the key international and regional actors that they must immediately ensure peace talks actually occur”, said William Davison, senior Ethiopia analyst for the International Crisis Group think tank.

“They should accordingly instruct the belligerents to issue all of their demands when at the negotiating table, rather than making them preconditions for talks.”

Diplomatic efforts in the past have run into trouble.

The TPLF has accused Obasanjo of being biased in favour of the government, and Addis Ababa in turn has chastised US and EU envoys for urging a resumption of basic services to Tigray, reflecting the scale of the challenge ahead.

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International

Five laboratories investigated in Spain over possible African Swine Fever leak

Catalan authorities announced this Saturday that a total of five laboratories are under investigation over a possible leak of the African swine fever virus, which is currently affecting Spain and has put Europe’s largest pork producer on alert.

“We have commissioned an audit of all facilities, of all centers within the 20-kilometer risk zone that are working with the African swine fever virus,” said Salvador Illa, president of the Catalonia regional government, during a press conference. Catalonia is the only Spanish region affected so far. “There are only a few centers, no more than five,” Illa added, one day after the first laboratory was announced as a potential source of the outbreak.

Illa also reported that the 80,000 pigs located on the 55 farms within the risk zone are healthy and “can be made available for human consumption following the established protocols.” Therefore, he said, “they may be safely marketed on the Spanish market.”

International

María Corina Machado says Venezuela’s political transition “must take place”

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado said this Thursday, during a virtual appearance at an event hosted by the Venezuelan-American Association of the U.S. (VAAUS) in New York, that Venezuela’s political transition “must take place” and that the opposition is now “more organized than ever.”

Machado, who is set to receive the Nobel Peace Prize on December 10 in Oslo, Norway — although it is not yet known whether she will attend — stressed that the opposition is currently focused on defining “what comes next” to ensure that the transition is “orderly and effective.”

“We have legitimate leadership and a clear mandate from the people,” she said, adding that the international community supports this position.

Her remarks come amid a hardening of U.S. policy toward the government of Nicolás Maduro, with new economic sanctions and what has been described as the “full closure” of airspace over and around Venezuela — a measure aimed at airlines, pilots, and alleged traffickers — increasing pressure on Caracas and further complicating both air mobility and international commercial operations.

During her speech, Machado highlighted the resilience of the Venezuelan people, who “have suffered, but refuse to surrender,” and said the opposition is facing repression with “dignity and moral strength,” including “exiles and political prisoners who have been separated from their families and have given everything for the democratic cause.”

She also thanked U.S. President Donald Trump for recognizing that Venezuela’s transition is “a priority” and for his role as a “key figure in international pressure against the Maduro regime.”

“Is change coming? Absolutely yes,” Machado said, before concluding that “Venezuela will be free.”

International

Catalonia’s president calls for greater ambition in defending democracy

The President of the Generalitat of Catalonia, Salvador Illa, on Thursday called for being “more ambitious” in defending democracy, which he warned is being threatened “from within” by inequality, extremism, and hate speech driven by what he described as a “politics of intimidation,” on the final day of his visit to Mexico.

“The greatest threat to democracies is born within themselves. It is inequality and the winds of extremism. Both need each other and feed off one another,” Illa said during a speech at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) in Mexico City.

In his address, Illa stated that in the face of extremism, society can adopt “two attitudes: hope or fear,” and warned that hate-driven rhetoric seeks to weaken citizens’ resolve. “We must be aware that hate speech, the politics of intimidation, and threats in the form of tariffs, the persecution of migrants, drones flying over Europe, or even war like the invasion of Ukraine, or walls at the border, all pursue the same goal: to make citizens give up and renounce who they want to be,” he added.

Despite these challenges, he urged people “not to lose hope,” emphasizing that there is a “better alternative,” which he summarized as “dialogue, institutional cooperation, peace, and human values.”

“I sincerely believe that we must be more ambitious in our defense of democracy, and that we must remember, demonstrate, and put into practice everything we are capable of doing. Never before has humanity accumulated so much knowledge, so much capacity, and so much power to shape the future,” Illa stressed.

For that reason, he called for a daily defense of the democratic system “at all levels and by each person according to their responsibility,” warning that democracy is currently facing an “existential threat.”