International

Ethiopia’s return to conflict: what we know

AFP

Fresh fighting between Ethiopian forces and Tigrayan rebels has broken a five-month truce that had paved the way for the resumption of humanitarian aid and tentative peace efforts.

The facts behind the sudden return to conflict in northern Ethiopia remain sparse. Here’s what we know so far and the questions that still linger:

– How did it happen? –

As has been the case throughout the 21-month conflict, both sides have accused each other of starting the fight and violating the truce that had been in place since late March.

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) said government forces and their allies launched a “large-scale” offensive towards southern Tigray at 5 am (0200 GMT) on Wednesday.

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But Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government said it was the rebels who struck first.

The tit-for-tat claims could not be independently verified as access to northern Ethiopia is severely restricted.

Later in the day, Ethiopia’s air force announced it had downed a plane carrying weapons for the TPLF that had entered its airspace via Sudan, a claim the rebels dismissed as a “blatant lie”.

– What does this mean for peace efforts? –

Regardless of who initiated Wednesday’s clashes, the prospects for peace in Africa’s second most populous nation appear grim, analysts say.

Even before the latest eruption of violence, the two sides were already at odds over the question of who should mediate potential negotiations.

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The Abiy government wants the African Union’s Horn of Africa envoy Olusegun Obasanjo to lead peace talks while the TPLF has been pushing for Kenya’s outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta to broker dialogue.

They have also sparred over the restoration of basic services such as electricity, communications and banking to Tigray — a key precondition for dialogue according to the TPLF.

The government on the other hand says federal service providers cannot work inside Tigray without a “secure environment”.

The Eurasia Group political risk consultancy flagged “the pre-emptive recruitment and training of troops by both camps” — an indication that neither side had put much stock in peace negotiations.

“Amid a resurgence in fighting, neither party will be willing to reduce their leverage for future talks by compromising on key issues,” said Eurasia’s Africa analyst Connor Vasey.

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“Rather, they will likely aim to use the next phase of fighting to bolster their negotiating positions,” he said, setting the stage for an escalation in violence.

– How will humanitarian aid be affected? –

Prior to the truce, no aid had reached Tigray by road for three months, leaving the region of six million in desperate need of food.

Even after convoys resumed, fuel shortages have made it difficult for aid workers to distribute supplies.

Last week, the UN’s World Food Programme warned that nearly half the population in Tigray was suffering from a severe lack of food and rates of malnutrition had “skyrocketed”.

The return to conflict will worsen an already dire situation.

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On Wednesday, the UN said the rebels had “forcibly entered” a WFP warehouse in Tigray’s capital Mekele that morning and taken a dozen tankers carrying 570,000 litres of fuel intended for emergency relief operations.

“Millions will starve if we do not have fuel to deliver food. This is OUTRAGEOUS and DISGRACEFUL,” WFP chief David Beasley said on Twitter.

– Is this a full-blown return to war? –

In recent weeks, both warring parties appear to have simultaneously broached the possibility of peace while also making preparations for a potential return to conflict.

Whether the latest conflagration leads to all-out war will depend on which view prevails, with analysts urging the international community to play a more active role in bringing both players to the negotiating table.

In a statement dated August 23, TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael said the rebels had participated in “two rounds of confidential face-to-face” meetings with top Ethiopian officials, the first acknowledgement by either side of direct talks.

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The government has not confirmed the existence of such talks, but last week an official committee tasked with looking into negotiations called for a formal ceasefire in a proposal it planned to submit to the AU.

The eruption of hostilities is “a deafening warning to the key international and regional actors that they must immediately ensure peace talks actually occur”, said William Davison, senior Ethiopia analyst for the International Crisis Group think tank.

“They should accordingly instruct the belligerents to issue all of their demands when at the negotiating table, rather than making them preconditions for talks.”

Diplomatic efforts in the past have run into trouble.

The TPLF has accused Obasanjo of being biased in favour of the government, and Addis Ababa in turn has chastised US and EU envoys for urging a resumption of basic services to Tigray, reflecting the scale of the challenge ahead.

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International

Pope Leo XIV Says Countries Have Border Rights but Migrants Deserve Respect

Pope Leo XIV said Thursday that migrants must be treated with dignity as he addressed the global migration crisis during a press conference aboard the plane returning from his tour of Africa.

The pontiff answered questions from journalists regarding his upcoming trip to Spain, which will include a visit to the Canary Islands, a region heavily affected by migration flows and growing political polarization surrounding the issue.

“Obviously, migration is a very complex issue and affects many countries — not only Spain, not only Europe, but also the United States. It is a global phenomenon,” the pope said.

Pope Leo XIV also questioned the role of developed nations in addressing the crisis.

“My response begins with a question: What is the Global North doing to help the Global South and those countries where young people no longer see a future and dream of going north, even when the North sometimes has no answers to offer?” he asked.

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While acknowledging that “a state has the right to establish rules for its borders,” the pope insisted that the debate must go beyond border control and address the structural causes that force people to leave their home countries.

International

Authorities Say Teotihuacán Gunman Was Obsessed With Mass Shootings and Extremist Symbolism

Julio César Jasso Ramírez, identified by authorities as the gunman behind the armed attack at the archaeological site of Teotihuacán, had allegedly spent years building a personal narrative shaped by an obsession with historical mass shootings, extremist symbolism, and an increasing detachment from reality.

According to preliminary findings from the Fiscalía General de Justicia del Estado de México, the 27-year-old suspect, originally from the southern Mexican state of Oaxaca, acted alone and appeared to have carefully planned the attack.

Investigators also pointed to signs of a severe psychological or psychiatric disorder. One official involved in the case stated that the suspect seemed to live in “his own reality,” disconnected from the world around him.

“I would not speak of a motive; I would speak of psychopathy, a condition, an illness,” the official said while discussing the ongoing investigation.

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Authorities reported that Jasso Ramírez was allegedly fixated on mass violence incidents that occurred outside Mexico, particularly in the United States.

Among the items found in his possession were writings, images, and materials reportedly linked to the Columbine High School massacre, the school shooting that took place on April 20, 1999.

The investigation remains ongoing as authorities continue analyzing evidence connected to the suspect’s background and mental state.

International

Iran refuses to reopen strait of Hormuz amid ongoing U.S. Naval blockade

Iran reaffirmed on Wednesday that it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the United States maintains its naval blockade against Iranian ports and vessels, amid rising geopolitical tensions in the region.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohamad Baqer Qalibaf warned that reopening the crucial maritime route depends on Washington honoring the ceasefire agreement. According to Qalibaf, Iran considers the deal to be violated due to ongoing U.S. actions.

The Iranian official accused the United States of carrying out a “naval blockade and the hijacking of the global economy,” while also pointing to Israeli military operations in Lebanon as part of the broader conflict affecting the region.

Qalibaf stated that military and economic pressure would not force Iran to change its position. “The United States and Israel failed to achieve their goals through military aggression, and they will not succeed through intimidation. The only path forward is to recognize the rights of the Iranian nation,” he said.

His remarks come amid stalled negotiations between Iran and the United States following direct talks held on April 11 and 12 in Islamabad.

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The discussions, led by U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian representatives, have shown little progress in recent days, increasing uncertainty over whether dialogue between the two sides will resume.

U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced an extension of the ceasefire but decided to keep the naval blockade in place, a move Tehran considers incompatible with ongoing negotiations.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps intensified operations in the area by seizing two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, accusing them of operating without the required permits and escorting them into Iranian territory.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical oil trade routes, and any prolonged disruption could have significant consequences for global energy markets.