International
Ethiopia’s return to conflict: what we know
AFP
Fresh fighting between Ethiopian forces and Tigrayan rebels has broken a five-month truce that had paved the way for the resumption of humanitarian aid and tentative peace efforts.
The facts behind the sudden return to conflict in northern Ethiopia remain sparse. Here’s what we know so far and the questions that still linger:
– How did it happen? –
As has been the case throughout the 21-month conflict, both sides have accused each other of starting the fight and violating the truce that had been in place since late March.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) said government forces and their allies launched a “large-scale” offensive towards southern Tigray at 5 am (0200 GMT) on Wednesday.
But Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government said it was the rebels who struck first.
The tit-for-tat claims could not be independently verified as access to northern Ethiopia is severely restricted.
Later in the day, Ethiopia’s air force announced it had downed a plane carrying weapons for the TPLF that had entered its airspace via Sudan, a claim the rebels dismissed as a “blatant lie”.
– What does this mean for peace efforts? –
Regardless of who initiated Wednesday’s clashes, the prospects for peace in Africa’s second most populous nation appear grim, analysts say.
Even before the latest eruption of violence, the two sides were already at odds over the question of who should mediate potential negotiations.
The Abiy government wants the African Union’s Horn of Africa envoy Olusegun Obasanjo to lead peace talks while the TPLF has been pushing for Kenya’s outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta to broker dialogue.
They have also sparred over the restoration of basic services such as electricity, communications and banking to Tigray — a key precondition for dialogue according to the TPLF.
The government on the other hand says federal service providers cannot work inside Tigray without a “secure environment”.
The Eurasia Group political risk consultancy flagged “the pre-emptive recruitment and training of troops by both camps” — an indication that neither side had put much stock in peace negotiations.
“Amid a resurgence in fighting, neither party will be willing to reduce their leverage for future talks by compromising on key issues,” said Eurasia’s Africa analyst Connor Vasey.
“Rather, they will likely aim to use the next phase of fighting to bolster their negotiating positions,” he said, setting the stage for an escalation in violence.
– How will humanitarian aid be affected? –
Prior to the truce, no aid had reached Tigray by road for three months, leaving the region of six million in desperate need of food.
Even after convoys resumed, fuel shortages have made it difficult for aid workers to distribute supplies.
Last week, the UN’s World Food Programme warned that nearly half the population in Tigray was suffering from a severe lack of food and rates of malnutrition had “skyrocketed”.
The return to conflict will worsen an already dire situation.
On Wednesday, the UN said the rebels had “forcibly entered” a WFP warehouse in Tigray’s capital Mekele that morning and taken a dozen tankers carrying 570,000 litres of fuel intended for emergency relief operations.
“Millions will starve if we do not have fuel to deliver food. This is OUTRAGEOUS and DISGRACEFUL,” WFP chief David Beasley said on Twitter.
– Is this a full-blown return to war? –
In recent weeks, both warring parties appear to have simultaneously broached the possibility of peace while also making preparations for a potential return to conflict.
Whether the latest conflagration leads to all-out war will depend on which view prevails, with analysts urging the international community to play a more active role in bringing both players to the negotiating table.
In a statement dated August 23, TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael said the rebels had participated in “two rounds of confidential face-to-face” meetings with top Ethiopian officials, the first acknowledgement by either side of direct talks.
The government has not confirmed the existence of such talks, but last week an official committee tasked with looking into negotiations called for a formal ceasefire in a proposal it planned to submit to the AU.
The eruption of hostilities is “a deafening warning to the key international and regional actors that they must immediately ensure peace talks actually occur”, said William Davison, senior Ethiopia analyst for the International Crisis Group think tank.
“They should accordingly instruct the belligerents to issue all of their demands when at the negotiating table, rather than making them preconditions for talks.”
Diplomatic efforts in the past have run into trouble.
The TPLF has accused Obasanjo of being biased in favour of the government, and Addis Ababa in turn has chastised US and EU envoys for urging a resumption of basic services to Tigray, reflecting the scale of the challenge ahead.
International
Israel says 136 food aid boxes airdropped into Gaza by six nations
The Israeli military announced on Sunday that 136 boxes of food aid were airdropped into Gaza by the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Egypt, Germany, and Belgium.
“In recent hours, six countries conducted air drops of 136 aid packages containing food for residents in the southern and northern Gaza Strip,” read the statement, which added that the operation was coordinated by COGAT, the Israeli defense body overseeing civil affairs in the occupied Palestinian territories.
The Israeli military emphasized that they will “continue working to improve the humanitarian response alongside the international community” and reiterated their stance to “refute false allegations of deliberate famine in Gaza.”
The announcement comes as UN agencies warn Gaza faces an imminent risk of famine. More than one in three residents go days without eating, and other nutrition indicators have dropped to their worst levels since the conflict began.
The agencies also noted the difficulty of “collecting reliable data in current conditions, as Gaza’s health systems —already devastated by nearly three years of conflict— are collapsing.”
Meanwhile, Gaza’s Hamas-run Health Ministry reported on Sunday that hospitals in the enclave recorded six deaths from hunger and malnutrition on Saturday, all of them adults.
International
Seven inmates dead, 11 injured after violent riot in Veracruz prison
Seven inmates were killed and eleven others injured in a violent riot and clash inside a penitentiary in the Mexican state of Veracruz, local authorities reported on Sunday.
The disturbance began on Saturday afternoon at the Social Reintegration Center in the port city of Tuxpan, in northern Veracruz, when inmates staged a protest over extortion and assaults allegedly carried out by members of the criminal group known as Grupo Sombra.
The protesting prisoners clashed with another group of inmates and set fires inside and outside the facility, seizing control of the prison for more than 12 hours.
During the takeover, the rioters released several videos, including one showing four prisoners —believed to be members of Grupo Sombra— accusing them of being behind the violence and extortion inside the prison.
It wasn’t until Sunday morning that elements of the Mexican Army, the National Guard, and local police forces managed to enter the prison and regain control. The state’s Public Security Secretariat confirmed that around 9:00 a.m. local time a coordinated operation restored full order and reestablished control of the facility.
Authorities also reported that the fires set by inmates were fully extinguished.
Official figures confirmed the “tragic” deaths of seven inmates and injuries to eleven people, who are now receiving medical treatment in various regional hospitals.
This is the second deadliest riot in Veracruz in the past eight years. In 2018, a violent uprising at the La Toma medium-security prison left seven people dead (six police officers and one unidentified man) and at least 22 injured (15 officers and seven inmates).
The riot follows the kidnapping and killing of retired teacher and taxi driver Irma Hernández, a case that shocked the entire country and was attributed to Grupo Sombra. Images of Hernández kneeling, surrounded by armed men in the municipality of Álamo, sparked nationwide outrage. She was murdered after refusing to pay extortion demands from the criminal organization.
Despite these incidents, Veracruz has not seen a spike in the daily homicide average. In fact, there has been a 1.6% decrease in homicides in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, according to the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System.
In 2023, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) reported 3,094 incidents in Mexican prisons —an 18.5% increase from the previous year— resulting in 100 deaths and 892 injuries.
International
Study finds COVID-19 vaccines prevented 2.5 million deaths worldwide
COVID-19 vaccines prevented an estimated 2,533,000 deaths worldwide between 2020 and 2024, according to an international study led by Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore in Italy and Stanford University in the United States, published in the journal JAMA Health Forum. Researchers calculated that one death was prevented for every 5,400 doses administered.
The analysis also found that the vaccines saved 14.8 million years of life, equivalent to one year of life gained for every 900 doses given.
The study, coordinated by Professor Stefania Boccia, revealed that 82% of the lives saved were people vaccinated before becoming infected with the virus, and 57% of deaths avoided occurred during the Omicron wave. In addition, 90% of the beneficiaries were adults over 60 years old.
“This is the most comprehensive analysis to date, based on global data and fewer assumptions about the evolution of the pandemic,” explained Boccia and researcher Angelo Maria Pezzullo.
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