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IMF sees heavy hit to German economy from Russian gas stop

AFP

Halting Russian gas supplies to Germany would cost Europe’s largest economy 1.5 percent of its GDP in 2022, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday, as concerns mount that Moscow will further squeeze supply.

This year’s loss would be followed by a negative impact of 2.7 percent in 2023 and a 0.4-percent reduction in 2024, according to an IMF forecast where gas deliveries were assumed to have stopped on June 1.

A potential shutoff “could cause sizable reductions in German economic activity and increases in inflation”, the IMF said in a statement.

Supplies to Germany from Russia are currently at zero as the Nord Stream pipeline undergoes maintenance, after Moscow initially slashed deliveries by 60 percent in mid-June citing a delayed gas turbine repair.

Berlin has rejected Gazprom’s turbine explanation and believes Russia is squeezing supplies in retaliation for Western sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

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Works on the pipeline are due to finish Thursday, with officials watching closely to see if and at what levels supplies resume.

The risks for the economy from a complete shutdown, as well as a weak global economy and widespread supply bottlenecks “loom large”, the IMF said.

The same headwinds meant that German “growth is likely to be muted in the coming quarters”, it said.

In its standard forecast, the IMF sees the German economy growing by 1.2 percent in 2022 and just 0.8 percent in 2023.

Meanwhile, the rising price of energy associated with the gas supply reductions already seen also meant that inflation is “likely to remain elevated in the next two years”, the IMF said.

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The IMF forecast inflation in Germany to sit at 7.7 percent in 2022 and 4.8 percent in 2023.

A complete Russian gas shut-off could potentially increase those figures by up to two percentage points in 2022 and 3.5 percentage points in 2023 in an “extreme” scenario where Europe struggles to source alternative supplies, it said.

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Tehran engulfed in toxic cloud after strikes on fuel facilities

Tehran woke up under a sky that shifted from gray to black following strikes on fuel infrastructure, as the city has become engulfed in a toxic cloud that is turning daily life into a public health and environmental emergency.

Residents warn that what is falling from the sky is no longer just rain, but a mixture of oil and pollutants. Attacks on fuel depots have triggered prolonged fires, releasing thick plumes of smoke that continue to spread across the العاصمة.

For several days, facilities have remained ablaze, while a dark layer has settled over streets, homes, and even water reserves. Authorities have urged the population—more than nine million people—to remain indoors, especially vulnerable groups.

The extreme toxicity is linked to mazut, a dense petroleum byproduct with high sulfur content still used in Iran due to industrial limitations and sanctions. When burned, it releases hazardous particles that, when combined with moisture, result in contaminated rainfall.

The situation is worsened by Tehran’s geography. Surrounded by mountains, the city is affected by a temperature inversion phenomenon that traps pollutants near the ground, preventing their dispersion and creating a stagnant layer of toxic air over the population.

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Residents have reported symptoms such as eye and skin irritation, headaches, and respiratory difficulties. Emergency agencies have also warned of potential chemical burns caused by acid rain.

Long-term concerns are mounting, as prolonged exposure to fine particles and heavy metals could lead to serious health conditions, including lung damage and cancer.

Contamination is also spreading to water sources and agricultural land, threatening the food supply in a country already facing water scarcity.

At a regional level, the environmental impact is expanding, with oil spills reported in the Persian Gulf, affecting marine ecosystems and fishing communities.

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FBI Most Wanted Fugitive Arrested in Mexico and Deported to U.S.

Authorities in Mexico announced Thursday that Samuel Ramírez Jr., a U.S. citizen accused of murdering two women and listed among the FBI’s Ten Most Wanted Fugitives, was arrested in the northern state of Sinaloa.

Ramírez Jr., 33, was detained Tuesday in Culiacán just 1 hour and 13 minutes after being added to the Federal Bureau of Investigation Ten Most Wanted list, the agency said in a statement.

The suspect, who was born in California, has already been deported to the U.S. state of Washington, where he faces charges related to the fatal shooting of two women at a bar in Federal Way in May 2023.

A court issued an arrest warrant for Ramírez in November last year, and the FBI initially offered a $25,000 reward for information leading to his capture, later increasing the amount to up to $1 million.

“To protect individuals’ privacy and ensure continued cooperation from the public, the FBI does not confirm the identity of those who provide information,” the agency said in its statement.

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UN experts warn Nicaragua runs vast transnational network to monitor exiled dissidents

Nicaragua maintains an “extensive” transnational network to monitor and intimidate opposition figures living in exile, affecting “hundreds of thousands” of people, the United Nations Group of Human Rights Experts on Nicaragua warned on Tuesday.

In a statement, the experts said their report “details an extensive transnational architecture of surveillance and intelligence used to monitor, intimidate and attack the hundreds of thousands of Nicaraguans living abroad.”

The report, which will be presented on March 16 to the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, states that the structure maintained by the government of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo includes the army, the police, migration authorities and diplomatic missions.

According to the statement, “the government has arbitrarily stripped 452 Nicaraguans of their nationality, left thousands more exiled in a situation of de facto statelessness, and prevented many from returning to Nicaragua.”