Sin categoría
IMF sees heavy hit to German economy from Russian gas stop
AFP
Halting Russian gas supplies to Germany would cost Europe’s largest economy 1.5 percent of its GDP in 2022, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday, as concerns mount that Moscow will further squeeze supply.
This year’s loss would be followed by a negative impact of 2.7 percent in 2023 and a 0.4-percent reduction in 2024, according to an IMF forecast where gas deliveries were assumed to have stopped on June 1.
A potential shutoff “could cause sizable reductions in German economic activity and increases in inflation”, the IMF said in a statement.
Supplies to Germany from Russia are currently at zero as the Nord Stream pipeline undergoes maintenance, after Moscow initially slashed deliveries by 60 percent in mid-June citing a delayed gas turbine repair.
Berlin has rejected Gazprom’s turbine explanation and believes Russia is squeezing supplies in retaliation for Western sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.
Works on the pipeline are due to finish Thursday, with officials watching closely to see if and at what levels supplies resume.
The risks for the economy from a complete shutdown, as well as a weak global economy and widespread supply bottlenecks “loom large”, the IMF said.
The same headwinds meant that German “growth is likely to be muted in the coming quarters”, it said.
In its standard forecast, the IMF sees the German economy growing by 1.2 percent in 2022 and just 0.8 percent in 2023.
Meanwhile, the rising price of energy associated with the gas supply reductions already seen also meant that inflation is “likely to remain elevated in the next two years”, the IMF said.
The IMF forecast inflation in Germany to sit at 7.7 percent in 2022 and 4.8 percent in 2023.
A complete Russian gas shut-off could potentially increase those figures by up to two percentage points in 2022 and 3.5 percentage points in 2023 in an “extreme” scenario where Europe struggles to source alternative supplies, it said.
Sin categoría
Convicted gang member challenges Guatemala’s anti-gang law, citing Human Rights Violations
A member of a criminal gang currently facing sentencing for the crime of extortion has filed a constitutional appeal before Guatemala’s Constitutional Court against the recently approved and enacted Anti-Gang Law.
The appeal, submitted by Dylan Smaily Archila García, argues that the new legislation violates his fundamental human rights and claims there were procedural irregularities during its approval process, according to local Guatemalan media.
Archila García filed the motion just hours after the law took effect. The new legislation, passed by Guatemala’s Congress, increases penalties for crimes linked to gang activity and authorizes the construction of a mega-prison, modeled after El Salvador’s Center for the Confinement of Terrorism (CECOT).
Local outlets reported that in his petition, Archila García contends that the approval of the law did not comply with constitutional requirements and requests that the Court issue a ruling to annul the legislation, effectively halting its enforcement.
The appeal further claims that the Anti-Gang Law infringes on due process rights, as it allegedly fails to guarantee a fair criminal trial in which defendants can prove their innocence, undermining legal certainty and judicial security.
Through this legal action, the petitioner seeks to have the law suspended and ultimately struck down by the Constitutional Court, preventing it from being debated again in Congress.
International
Trump warns Hamas that they will be “eradicated” if they break the ceasefire with Israel in Gaza
The President of the United States, Donald Trump, urged Hamas again this Monday to stop the violence and take the terms of the peace plan it promotes with Israel in Gaza, warning that otherwise they could be “eradicated,” although in turn he ruled out the possible presence of soldiers from his country in the Strip.
“We have peace in the Middle East for the first time in history; we reached an agreement with Hamas for which they will be very good, they will behave well and they will be kind. And if not, we will go and we will eradicate them,” the president told the press during a meeting at the White House with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
Trump clarified, however, that if that happened “there would be no American soldiers on the ground at all” because it would only be enough to ask several of the countries that supported the peace proposal to take charge of the Palestinian militant group: “Israel would intervene in two minutes,” he added.
“I could tell them to intervene (to the countries) and take care of it. But for now, we haven’t said it. We are going to give (Hamas) a small chance and, hopefully, there will be a little less violence,” said the president, whose plan received the support of Arab and European nations during a peace summit in Egypt.
The American insisted that the militant group “has been very violent, but no longer has the support of Iran. He no longer has the support of anyone. They have to behave well, and if they don’t, they will be eradicated,” he repeated.
Israel bombed several points in Gaza on Sunday and killed dozens of people, in response to what it interpreted as a “violation” of the agreement by Hamas, a week after the entry into force of the ceasefire promoted by the Trump Administration.
The bombings took place after clashes in the Rafah area, located in southern Gaza and controlled by the Israeli Army, which left two Israeli soldiers dead.
After these clashes, Israel claimed to have “resumed the application of the ceasefire”. Shortly after, Trump assured for his part that the truce “is still in force.”
The Republican president had already threatened last week to “kill” Hamas members if they did not comply with the ceasefire agreement with Israel and “continue to kill in Gaza.”
The militant group has mobilized in Gaza to regain control after the start of the ceasefire in the Strip, which has meant the withdrawal of Israeli troops from half of the territory. In the midst of this tense situation, there have also been clashes between Hamas and other local militias.
Several videos show summary executions of people whom Palestinian militants accuse of collaborating with Israel, which according to local sources, have occurred in Gaza City.
Sin categoría
Trump files $15 billion defamation suit against The New York Times
U.S. President Donald Trump has filed a $15 billion defamation and libel lawsuit against The New York Times, which denounced the legal move on Tuesday as an attempt to silence the press.
In this new stage of his presidency, the 79-year-old Republican leader has escalated his long-standing hostility toward traditional media, repeatedly attacking critical journalists, limiting their access, or taking them to court.
The lawsuit, filed Monday in Florida, seeks $15 billion in damages, along with additional punitive compensation “in an amount to be determined at trial.”
The New York Times had reported last week that Trump threatened legal action over articles concerning a birthday letter allegedly sent by him to financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The letter featured a typed message inside the outline of a nude woman. Trump denies that the accompanying signature is his.
“For too long, The New York Times has been allowed to lie, defame, and slander me freely — and that ends NOW!” Trump wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social.
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